Tourism in times of crisis
Svetlana Popović Vujotić
Tourism
Dynamic and resilient, much like life itself, tourism is at the same time one of the most sensitive economic sectors. Its resilience and ability to adapt to new circumstances are once again being put to the test. This time due to the conflict in the Middle East and the limited supply of oil and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, which is the lifeline of the global energy system.
Uncertainty for the global economy is already certain: rising fuel prices will lead to higher overall costs of living and doing business, and a possible return of inflation to a worrying level.
At the same time, European and global officials are calling for the prudent use of available resources and an increase in renewable energy sources.
The price of kerosene has risen drastically, directly affecting the cost of airline tickets. Executives of the largest European airlines have stated that they have partially hedged fuel prices, but in the long term (if the crisis continues), they will not be able to avoid passing additional costs on to passengers.
On this current international issue and its impact on the tourism sector, we spoke with geopolitical experts and tourism specialists, journalists, local managers, as well as residents of the Middle East.
Prof.dr Zijad Bećirović
Prof. Dr. Zijad Bećirović, Director of the International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES), based in Ljubljana, told “Argument” that the most pronounced negative consequences of the crisis in the Middle East will be felt by countries directly affected by the conflict, as well as their neighboring destinations, which are increasingly perceived by tourists as unsafe.
“Tourism, as an extremely sensitive economic sector, reacts strongly to the perception of risk, and even an indirect connection to a crisis region can result in a significant decline in tourist arrivals. At the same time, stable and geographically distant destinations may achieve certain benefits through the redirection of tourist flows toward safer areas.
Small and stable economies, such as Slovenia or Montenegro, have the potential to benefit from such developments, but only by maintaining an image of safety and the ability to adequately respond to increased demand.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Montenegro, Prof. Bećirović emphasizes, still has significant untapped potential to attract additional tourists from the region, which requires a more intensive and conceptually innovative approach to the development of tourism and related activities.
“In the regional context, Bosnia and Herzegovina is particularly affected, as it has traditionally recorded a significant influx of tourists from the Middle East, which, due to the crisis, is clearly reflected in negative trends in its tourism sector,” concludes Prof. Bećirović.
Prof.dr Jasna Potočnik – Topler
Prof. Dr. Jasna Potočnik–Topler from the Faculty of Tourism at the University of Maribor, whose research focuses on sustainable tourism and tourism strategy, states that the conflicts in the Middle East will have a significant impact on the tourism sector at both global and local levels.
“On a global level, tourists avoid not only directly affected countries but also the wider region, while at the same time interest in safer destinations, especially in Europe, is increasing. In this context, countries such as Slovenia may experience a moderate increase in tourist arrivals, thanks to their image as stable and safe destinations, particularly in the segment of urban and sustainable tourism, while Montenegro may achieve even more pronounced positive effects due to its coastal offer and competitive prices, attracting tourists who are turning away from the Eastern Mediterranean,” says Prof. Potočnik–Topler.
Slovenia
Global crises show that smaller tourism systems, such as those in Slovenia or Montenegro, are more flexible and quicker to adapt, but at the same time more vulnerable compared to large destinations.
“Their advantage lies in less complex management, shorter decision-making chains, and the ability to quickly adjust marketing strategies. They can also rapidly position themselves as safe alternatives. On the other hand, large tourism systems have greater resilience due to diversified markets, stronger infrastructure, and financial reserves, but they are slower to change due to complexity and bureaucracy,” says Prof. Potočnik–Topler.
For Slovenia, which is visited by 6 million tourists annually (60% for nature), the Middle Eastern market has a relatively small share (50,000 to 150,000 visitors), but it is considered a growing segment characterized by high purchasing power.
“A shared advantage of Slovenia and Montenegro is the possibility of combining green and blue tourism into regional packages, creating added value for tourists seeking diversity and safety within one region,” emphasizes Prof. Potočnik–Topler.
Ivica Đuzel
Ivica Đuzel, a well-known TV face of Croatian Radiotelevision, who has been editing and hosting a popular tourism show for ten years, says that in Croatia there are currently no disruptions in air traffic or flight cancellations. Croatia has its own LNG terminal, so it can better manage the crisis with petroleum products.
Croatians are presenting themselves this summer with the slogan “Affordable and Safe,” which shows how a lot can be said to the whole world with just a few words. Split alone will be connected to 85 destinations this season, for the first time also to New York.
“I believe that destinations such as Croatia and Montenegro are not under pressure from major interests or street violence, as is the case in Spain, but caution is certainly needed due to migration. On the other hand, we are witnessing summer holidays being canceled in Turkey, and even in Greece, due to their proximity to the conflict zone. Cyprus has already collapsed… No one even mentions us, and that is a good thing,” claims Đuzel.
In the neighboring country, despite global challenges, a strong peak tourist season is expected, along with visitors from traditional markets, including the British and Americans. Tourism revenue in Croatia in 2025 exceeded 15 billion euros.
Croatia
“The biggest challenge will be the expected decline in out-of-accommodation spending, as fuel prices will force many guests to save, and hospitality will take a back seat. Supermarkets and retail stores will profit. There is no alternative plan, as it is believed that guests will still come to the Adriatic, with pandemic experiences being recalled…”
Journalist Đuzel states that Croatia and Montenegro are part of the same market, two neighboring countries with the same goals, which in the coming period should not allow an increase in previously agreed accommodation prices.
Milena Brajović
In Montenegro, which has visibly strengthened its air connectivity this year, restored some of its most visited festival events, announced the reopening of the hotel town Sveti Stefan, and is striving to complete works on the key road section between Budva and Tivat Airport, uncertainty still remains.
“Unforeseen circumstances caught us off guard during last year’s summer season, and this year the situation in the Middle East has significantly affected the pre-season. What will certainly mark this year is great uncertainty and the trend of last-minute bookings,” explains Milena Brajović, Executive Director of the “Voco” hotel, which has been operating since 2019 as part of the world’s largest group, InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG).
Regardless of the fact that the services of well-known hotel brands, which have been present in Montenegro for two decades, are most often used by clientele with considerable purchasing power, the experienced management team supports the view that it is necessary to remain consistent with a moderate pricing policy, following guests’ needs, which is the key to success in tourism.
“The situation in the Middle East is causing economic challenges in terms of rising operating costs (fuel and other inputs), while negative forecasts for air traffic further threaten the stability of our sector,” explains Brajović, reminding that hotels and agencies in Montenegro have strong cooperation with the Middle Eastern market.
Montenegro
This crisis once again teaches us that resilience in business comes from quick adaptation to circumstances, inventive and creative solutions, and strong destination promotion.
Montenegro will be present over the next three months through a promotional campaign on the TV channels of the global media company Warner Bros. Discovery, making it visible across 40 global markets.
It is always important to understand that tourism is not a personal matter but a general interest, and that a destination’s competitiveness does not depend solely on its visibility. Experts argue that this economic activity, wherever it exists, should be developed as economic infrastructure rather than marketed as a seasonal product.
Nađa Milović
To conclude this complex topic, which is not measured by the length of the text but by the messages it conveys, we leave you with the story of our compatriot Nađa Milović, who has been living and working in Dubai for many years.
“In the first days of the conflict, we were all frightened because it was a major shock for us. Through the public safety alert system, via mobile phones, we were informed about a possible incoming attack and urged to immediately head to the nearest shelter until the danger passed. After the second message, we returned to our usual activities with additional caution. This citizen information system proved to be very effective. Now the situation is much calmer thanks to the excellent defense system of the UAE and the institutions that strive to keep the situation under constant control,” explains Milović.
Dubai
Since the beginning of the conflict and rising tensions in the region around the Strait of Hormuz, life in luxurious Dubai has become calmer than before. People are spending more time at home with family and friends.
“Hotels are still operating, but there are significantly fewer tourists as the number of flights is limited. Major airlines, such as Emirates and Etihad, are implementing reduced flight schedules or redirecting aircraft to other destinations. All forms of public transport are functioning normally. For now, there are no shortages or price increases, but there are appeals to conserve certain products. Local production here is strong,” concludes Nađa Milović.
Residents of Dubai, during this crisis period, have the opportunity to visit numerous attractions in a calmer environment due to fewer tourists, and in many places this is free of charge.
Dubai